Posts

May 19, 2026 A Complexity Theory of AI Value Accrual
Labs' love-hate relationship with world complexity.
April 20, 2026 An Equilibrium Theory of Vertical Integration
Defending against new forces of modularization.
March 21, 2026 Against The Coasean Singularity
Under AI, firms get big.
March 2, 2026 Durability of Frontier AI
Extending the Coase Conjecture to AI
February 15, 2026 Token Counters
AI Labs are the New Blockbuster.
January 27, 2026 Agent Seeking Honest Work
RIP centralized router thesis.
January 5, 2026 Surprise! Surprise!
Necessary conditions for AI value-capture.
December 28, 2025 You must just do things
The age of enabling is over. It's time to do.
December 18, 2025 Cybernetic Arbitrage
Why the AI rollup wins.
November 30, 2025 Illiquid Dark Matter
A post-mortem case for situated awareness.
November 21, 2025 Making Food Programmable
The incredible opportunity of keeping every fridge full.
October 25, 2025 The price of outcomes
App-layer outcomes pricing is fake.
October 5, 2025 Hard Mode
Under AI, difficulty underwrites durability.
August 13, 2025 Outcomes Protocol
A mechanism to commodify trusted AI.
August 1, 2025 The Bitter Lesson and Hayek's Revenge
How Hayek sends intelligence to the edge.
July 28, 2025 The Smart Squeeze
Microeconomic model: margin pressures facing B2B AI apps.
July 21, 2025 Autonomous Commerce
Why autonomy > AI agents.
July 16, 2025 Dumb Money
Reselling cognition makes bad business.
December 13, 2018 The Destruction of Everything but Silicon and Gucci
2018 prediction: A barbell is coming to business.